The idea for this article emerged gradually as we tried to explain to our clients our perception of the market's evolution since 2022, which hasn't been a straight line, and has caused quite a stir among watchmaking aficionados. By "market," to be precise, we refer to the second-hand and collectible watch market, as distinct from the new watch market.
We do not claim to be able to rationalize all the elements since 2022, nor to synthesize them all, but we can identify some trends, provide our explanations, and propose our vision for the coming months. We hope this article will enlighten you and we remain open to your comments in a spirit of sharing and exchange.
Therefore, this article aims to cover three distinct periods:
- An euphoric year 2022
- A cautious year 2023
- 2024 with new visibility to other brands
Collectible Watches, a market in its own right
Having discussed this topic with many of you in private, our stance is not to provide you with only a cold and analytical view of the watch market because we are well aware that we are addressing enthusiasts first and foremost. And as you have understood, we are enthusiasts too!
However, the watch market is like any other market, particularly expensive, and we believe it's important to approach it with a great deal of clarity. We will not renounce our beliefs; pre-owned and collectible watches are an investment. While it's dangerous to overlook the concept of investment (a reasoned one), it's even more so not to fully incorporate the concept of pleasure into our reasoning! In other words, our recommendation is to indulge with your eyes wide open to the realities of a market that is becoming increasingly specialized.
To return to our retrospective topic, if we go back a bit further in time, to 2017 for example, we can only recall two very strong trends: on one hand, a steady and sustained increase in prices from 2017 to 2022, and on the other, a refocusing of the market around the trio of Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek. We have devoted a few articles to this subject (on the surge in Nautilus prices, on Vintage Daytonas), and we regretted that some particularly deserving brands with rich histories were so little considered.
So we approached 2022, the starting point of our retrospective, with a dynamic and highly concentrated market...
2022: A Year of Euphoria
The year 2022 started off with a bang, with secondary market prices soaring, especially for brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek, for "nearly new," second-hand, and by a ripple effect, for collectibles as well.
The Nautilus as a Symbol of Soaring Prices
Among the anecdotes that help to understand the overall phenomenon, we can mention the price of a Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712, which in stores, for the lucky few, was close to 50,000 euros but sold in March 2022 for up to 150,000 euros, and sometimes more... regardless of the watch's year, whether recent or from 2007! In this specific case, it would be more appropriate to talk about speculation rather than investment!
Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712
It's quite delicate to estimate the number of 5712 pieces produced since 2006/2007 (the first years of the model's production), but we could venture an estimate of around 1,500 pieces per year, potentially more than 20,000 pieces in circulation. While this is a relatively limited production (no doubt compared to Rolex's production for a Daytona 116500, for example), it's far from F.P. Journe's annual total production, which does not exceed 1,000 pieces for all models combined!
Therefore, it seems utterly inexplicable that prices for certain models such as a 5712 have skyrocketed to this extent, unless considering a suddenly extremely high demand (thus of a new kind driven by new aspirations and needs).
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Nautilus 3700 |
Nautilus 3712 |
Nautilus 5726 |
Nautilus 5990 |
Some explanations, often converging, have mentioned a flood of liquidity in the market, notably with cryptocurrencies, and a desire for a new category of clients to "convert" the intangible and virtual into "tangible assets," namely "standardized" watches, which are easier to grasp than collectible (or vintage) watches that remain unique and thus much less easy (more technical) to negotiate. It would thus have been a transfer of "virtual" liquidity to tangible assets convertible into more conventional liquidity... This explanation, both plausible and partially verifiable, has added to a more generalized euphoria... The (latent!) capital gains quickly attracted all sorts of investors, more or less keen on horology.
At the risk of shocking some of you, a Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712 remains a modern Nautilus, once the overall condition is assessed, nothing is more comparable to a 5712 than another 5712... However, a collectible watch from the 1970s remains unique, which may explain why we have not observed as significant an increase, all proportions considered, in the collectible market.
Audemars Piguet and the 50th Anniversary of the Royal Oak
The first part of 2022 was marked by a significant increase in the volume of watches sold, and a very significant increase in the price of modern, neo-vintage, and to a lesser extent, collectible watches, except for Audemars Piguet which benefited from a very appreciable factor, the fiftieth anniversary of the Royal Oak in 2022.
It can be quite easily argued that the brand itself was particularly instrumental in the price increase of the Royal Oaks, whether modern or vintage... Notably, 2022 saw a very spectacular increase in all historic Royal Oaks, whether the 5402 series A, B, C, or D, the jubilee, 15002, or even the perpetual calendars, references 5554ST, 26554ST, or 26554BA, not to mention the precious rare dials (set, "Klein", in unique materials...).
Triptych of 5402, from left to right: 5402ST, 5402SA, 5402BA
Auction houses, led by the flamboyant Aurel Bacs of Phillips, or Christie's, have particularly contributed to maintaining the price increase, especially for Audemars Piguet in the first part of 2022. We covered the Geneva auctions in May 2022.
Another phenomenon observed in 2022 is the "renaissance" of the Vacheron Constantin brand, which reissued its iconic 222 in March, launched in 1977 for the 222nd anniversary of the House. The Overseas range, updated to contemporary tastes, followed the price appreciation known by the leading trio... perhaps also because these brands were becoming increasingly inaccessible. We, for our part, celebrated this expansion of the offer and the
